Market Impacts: Trade Shows, Trade Policy, and Legislative Shifts | Q1 2026 Hardwood Industry Outlook

Q1 2026 HARDWOOD INDUSTRY OUTLOOK & INDUSTRY EVENTS: SETTING THE TONE FOR THE NEW YEAR

Three major gatherings anchor the beginning of 2026, each providing a forum for education, networking, and important conversations about where the market is headed.

Indiana Hardwood Lumbermen’s Association Convention (IHLA) February 2–4, 2026 • Indianapolis, IN

Kicking off the year, the IHLA Convention brings together saw-mills, producers, distributors, and suppliers for discussions on the issues shaping the industry’s immediate future. A central focus this year is trade policy, including a Tariffs & Trade Update led by Hardwood Federation Executive Director Dana Lee Cole.

Additional sessions—such as an export outlook featuring AHEC’s Mike Snow and panels on automation and grading technology—round out a program designed to equip businesses with the information they need to navigate changing global and domestic conditions.

Appalachian Hardwood Manufacturers, Inc. Annual Meeting (AHMI) March 4–8, 2026 • Naples, FL

AHMI’s Annual Meeting blends operational fundamentals with new opportunities for growth. This year's agenda includes updates on: • Automation and mill efficiency

• USDA rural development programs supporting hardwood-producing communities

• Healthcare and retirement initiatives for industry employers

AHMI continues to serve as a venue where regional producers can discuss evolving market conditions, explore export opportunities, and strengthen partnerships.

International Mass Timber Conference (IMTC) March 31–April 2, 2026 • Portland, OR

Though traditionally oriented toward softwood and engineered products, the International Mass Timber Conference has become increasingly relevant for hardwood stakeholders. As North America’s mass timber movement accelerates, interest in hardwoods—particularly regionally available species—has grown.

The IMTC will feature: • Insights from global architects and engineers, including keynote speaker Kengo Kuma

• Technical sessions spanning design, construction, and supply chain logistics

• Discussions on material performance and sustainability, areas where hardwoods can demonstrate clear advantages

With 3,000 participants expected, the conference offers a strategic platform to build relationships with architects, builders, and designers who influence the future of wood use in construction.

TRADE AND TARIFF DEVELOPMENTS: A FLUID LANDSCAPE

Trade policy uncertainty has increased entering 2026, as existing tariffs remain in place while new tariff proposals and geopolitical trade risks emerge.

Section 232 Tariffs Now Fully in Effect

As of January 2026, Section 232 tariffs on wood products remain in effect, with previously announced rate increases delayed pending further trade negotiations. Current tariffs include:

• 25% on upholstered wooden furniture

• 25% on kitchen cabinets, vanities, and component parts (Planned increases to 30% and 50%, respectively, have been delayed until at least 2027.) While hardwood lumber itself is not directly targeted, these tariffs affect the broader wood products supply chain, influencing pricing, sourcing decisions, and downstream manufacturing.

Businesses should monitor federal updates closely throughout Q1, as enforcement details and tariff classifications may continue to shift.

China Trade Outlook

U.S.–China relations remain a major factor for hardwood exporters. Several developments stand out as 2026 begins:

• A baseline 10% tariff on many Chinese imports remains in place under current agreements, with the United States and China agreeing to pause additional escalations through late 2026.

• Recent discussions around potential tariffs—including a proposed 25% tariff on countries that partner with Iran—have drawn attention because key hardwood trading partners such as China and Vietnam could be affected. • A baseline 10% tariff on many Chinese imports remains in place under current agreements, with the United States and China agreeing to pause additional escalations through late 2026.

• Recent discussions around potential tariffs—including a proposed 25% tariff on countries that partner with Iran—have drawn attention because key hardwood trading partners such as China and Vietnam could be affected.

This policy reversal is welcome news for timberland owners and exporters who experienced disruptions during the ban.

Vietnam’s Expanded Role in Hardwood Trade

During China’s log embargo, Vietnam rapidly scaled up its process-ing capacity—largely backed by Chinese investment—to handle hardwood materials previously destined for China. Even with China now accepting U.S. logs again:

• Vietnam remains a major importer of U.S. logs and lumber,

• and a key processor of hardwood products moving into China and global markets. This shift represents a long-term structural change in trade flows. For U.S. exporters, Vietnam continues to present both opportunities and new market dynamics to watch in Q1.

LEGISLATIVE WATCH: TRANSPORTATION & INFRASTRUCTURE

Transportation remains one of the hardwood sector’s most signifi-cant operational costs, making federal truck-weight reform a closely watched priority.

Two proposals are front and center as Congress begins work on the 2026 Highway Bill:

Safe Routes Act (H.R. 2166 / S. 1063)

Would allow logging and lumber trucks operating at legal state highway weights to use segments of the federal interstate system.

Benefits Include:

• More efficient routing

• Reduced travel through small towns

• Lower transportation costs for mills and loggers

FRESH Act (Freight Restriction Elimination for Safer Hauling) Expected to broaden interstate weight allowances to include additional commodities such as biomass and green lumber.

Both proposals have bipartisan interest, though railroad industry opposition remains a consideration. If incorporated into the final bill, these reforms could significantly reduce freight costs and im-prove supply chain logistics in 2026 and beyond.

LOOKING AHEAD

The first quarter of 2026 brings a full slate of industry events, ongoing trade negotiations, and meaningful legislative opportunities. While the policy and tariff landscape remains fluid, hardwood businesses can use this period to gather insight, reinforce partnerships, and prepare strategically for shifting global and domestic market conditions.

As tradeshows kick off and federal discussions advance, NHLA will continue monitoring developments and sharing timely updates to help members navigate the quarter with confidence.

Sources:

China lifts import ban on U.S. logs after review of U.S. corrective measures. U.S. Logs & Lumber, Nov. 7, 2025.

White House Section 232 Proclamation update (Dec. 2025)